Theory of Change

People’s Action for National Integration (PANI) set up in 1989 decided to develop its Theory of Change as a follow-up to the organizational review conducted with the support of SDTT. Thus, from December 2015 to March 2016, a series of four participatory workshops were conducted and a participatory process of working out PANI’s TOC was adopted. A 14-member working group comprised of programmatic and departmental leaders and coordinators and the CEO and Directors were formed to work together towards developing the TOC.

The workshops sought to develop the Theory of Change built on PANI’s experience of over 25 years of development work in the Eastern UP region. The process of TOC development went through the following steps (see process of developing a TOC diagram below):

A shared vision of success: The ultimate change that PANI wants to see happen in the area. This is based on the environment scanning and background mapping, identification of target groups and stakeholder mapping
Outcomes expected for each stakeholder after an analysis of the current change environment. These outcomes visualize the change that is expected in the lives of the particular stakeholder groups and institutions.
Identifying the preconditions of success– what short and medium term outcomes are necessary in order to achieve ultimate outcomes for each of the stakeholder groups.
From the preconditions working backwards to identify the assumptions on what would need to happen before the preconditions can be achieved. Then this can be used to plan the kind of interventions that would be likely to be most effective in this context.

Process of Developing a TOC

I. Geographical focus and Target Groups:

At the outset PANI, based on a thorough scanning of the socio-economic-political2 environment in Uttar Pradesh, chose the geographical focus for its development intervention to cover 40 districts of Eastern UP- Purvanchal, Tarai (Indo-Nepal border), Central UP and Bundelkhand. It was also accepted that PANI could take on projects in other states. But its overall focus of holistic development would be in the 40 districts identified based on certain broad indicators of development. Based on the environment scanning and data, the following three target groups were identified:

Marginalized communities- Dalit & most backward, Muslim, sexual minorities – (coming to about 64% of total population)
Small & marginal Farmers & landless, Migrant labour – (70% of total population)
Women, adolescent girls & children across all section of target groups –(70% of population)

II. Vision of Success through Environment Scanning

A thorough background mapping and environment scanning was done based on the working groups experience, review of data available and PANIs own experience in UP. The scanning included the following broad areas

Group 1: Social situation analysis- including hierarchies, vulnerabilities,change in communities- education, health, families, sanitation, housing, etc.
Group 2: Political- including power, politics, social hierarchies, access to resources, government focus, funding situation
Group 3: Economic situation- livelihoods, agriculture, other occupations, land holding
Group 4: Vulnerable groups- women, adolescent girls, children, landless
In the final analysis the socio-economic and political situation in Eastern UP merits a concerted intervention by PANI.

Environment Scanning and background mapping:

The following aspects have been encompassed in environment scanning and mapping.

Social situation analysis- hierarchies, vulnerabilities, changes in communities-education, health, families, sanitation, housing, etc.
Political- power, politics, social hierarchies, access to resources , government focus, funding situation
Economic situation- livelihoods, agriculture, other occupations, landholding
Vulnerable groups- women, children, landless

In nutshell; the overall scenario is as under.

Diversity and Power hierarchies are intense: Hierarchies are based on caste category, economic status, age, position/power, family relations, gender relation and educational status.
High vulnerability among women, adolescent girls, children, landless and marginal landholders: Women and children are worse affected in family and society because of poor health care, inadequate nutritional intake, unhygienic living/dwelling conditions, over burden of worked on women, child labour and abuse in various forms. Landless and marginal farmers with less or no skills migrate seasonally in search of livelihood options and get exploited in cities.
Social status and quality of life deteriorating: Schooling increased but quality of education deteriorating rapidly. Girls’ higher education is still not a priority and it is restricted by parents after 8th / 10th /12th standards. Ignorance puts health issues on back seat and inadequate govt. health facilities further deteriorates the situation and lead to wrong perceptions about health issues. Attention is not given to social factors that direct affect the health and nutrition of women and children. Nuclear families become women- headed families when male migrate for livelihood that increases burden of work over women inside and outside of the home. Social and economic reasons promote open defecation, poor waste manage management and lead to microbial and chemical contamination of ground water. Cemented and well-constructed houses are very limited. Unhygienic living habits make it worse.
Resources and access to resources being affected by caste based individual centric politics: Regionalism, caste based politics, regional political parties; nepotism, use of relational powers is finding its place very rapidly. Feudalism is still prevalent in evolved forms and it is continuously increasing unequal access and control over resources; be it individual or common.
Powerlessness is increasing: Evolved feudalism strengthened caste system indirectly and led to power imbalance in society.
Decreasing citizenship accountability: Citizens take interest in political issues, cast votes but do not understand the democratic values and citizenship accountability as laid down in Constitution of India.
Reducing funding inflow: Funding from govt, non govt., corporates is reducing constantly and its not reaching to beneficiaries the proportion it is inteneded reach.
Fragmented land holding with higher pressure on land: The 13% population homesteads are landless and 31% migrate for livelihood. The 82% farmers are marginal with average landholding of 0.35 hectare.
Low per capita income: In Eastern UP; per capita income is Rs.12,741 against UP average of Rs.17,349 and India average is Rs.30,000.
Decreasing natural resources lead Climate Change & increase in natural disaster: Part of UP is flood affected and part is drought prone. Fertile soil get eroded every year due to flood. The 60.5% area is under agriculture. UP has arrived to this situation due over exploitation of natural resources.
Unproductive animal husbandry: Highest number of livestock population is in Uttar Pradesh with low productivity i.e. per animal per day is 4.14 Litre.
Lack of control over their own life – women, children, landless, sexual minority, Person with special ability, violation of fundamental rights and deep seated gender discrimination.
- Next, all the groups and institutions that PANI would need to partner with in order to achieve her Vision Of Success for the target groups were identified.
- Thus, evolved the Vision of Success for the target groups, which PANI will strive to bring about. For this, the outcomes expected of each of the partner groups and institutions in order to move towards the fulfillment of the Vision of Success are as follows:

Vision of Success: Socially and economically marginalized communities, especially women, adolescent girls & children, have built their capabilities to live a life of dignity.
Women Women are asserting their agency and taking the leadership for social change by establishing their identity.	Children Healthy, secure and happy children are enjoying their childhood and rights.	Adolescent and Youth (Girls & boys) Youth are involved with constructive approaches in individual & societal development.
Farmer Farmer collectives collaborate with government. , Market & peers for economic, Social & environmental sustainability.	CBOs Strong, Capable & proactive CBOs are recognized for their role in sustainable development.	PRIs Ensure effective participation & enable marginalized communities to access their entitlements.
Govt. departments Government departments function effectively, recognize & collaborate with other development actors proactively for inclusive governance.	National, International & CSR Donors & resource Donors & resource agencies partner with social development actors with shared perspectives.	Other NGOs NGOs are fostering active networks to share & influence social change process to promote accountability

III. Vision of Success, Outcomes, Preconditions and Assumptions

There are certain absolute necessary pre-conditions if the outcomes are to be met. And in order for the pre-conditions to be met, there are certain assumptions made, as that needs to exist in order that the pre-conditions are to be met. Thus, the assumptions provide the direction as to what interventions have to be made (if the situation is not there) in order for the pre-conditions to be met so that the outcomes are to be achieved.

Vision of Success Socially and economically marginalized communities, especially women, adolescent girl & children, have built their capabilities to live a life of dignity.

Groups/Institutions	Outcome	Preconditions	Assumptions
Women	Women are asserting their agency & taking the leadership for social change by establishing their identity.	Spaces and opportunity for self-exploration, knowledge and information are available and accessible at the village level with institutions understanding women’s issues and needs. Women have the opportunity to move beyond gender biased socially prescribed roles and foster collaborative spaces with men. Women are skilled, functionally literate & self confident and are able to take care of their health and nurturing needs. Women take up leadership with strong will power, are challenging, take calculated risks, and are fearless and collaborative.	1.1 Women feel the need to bring in changes in their life situations. 1.2 Women are willing to take action in bringing about changes. 1.3 There are strong & active women CBOs are in villages led by women leaders, committed for social change. 1.4 Flexible & accessible spaces are available for women to get information. 1.5 Local governance system is open to proactively provide the space for women voices. 2.1 Men & women are aware about patriarchal attitudes that bind women to the family/private space. 2.2 Men & women openly provide encouragement & opportunities for participating in public spaces. 2.3 Community recognizes gender discrimination, as a public issue not a private issue. 3.1 All the facilities & opportunities are open & accessible to women for skill development & learning. 4.1 identified women with leadership qualities are available in villages for partnership with PANI. 4.2 women leaders are committed & motivated to take up social causes.
Children	Healthy, secure & happy children are enjoying their childhood & rights.	Child friendly resources are adequately available and accessible at village level. Institutions working with children are sensitive, supportive and focused to ensure happy & secure childhood with rights. Children & their collectives are actively involved in learning & growth and take up leadership. Children are expressive, inquisitive, and friendly and gender sensitive.	1.1 All children are enrolled in primary & pre-primary schools. 1.2 Community understands the need & resources required for children. 1.3 Parents are providing equal opportunity to girl & boys and put the pressure on the system. 2.1 Convergence among local institutions to provide quality services. 2.2 Children are not facing any discrimination to access facilities & information at village level. 3.1 Gender friendly child collectives are available and understand their needs & issues. 3.2 People know about child rights, acts & law related to child. 3.3 Various platforms /forum are available to raise their voices.
Adolescent and Youth (Girls & boys)	Adolescent and Youth (Girls & boys) are involved with constructive approaches in individual & societal development.	Motivated youth & their collective’s takeup leadership and strive for quality education and life skills. Young men & women are in collaborative relationships with mutual respect & social sensitivity. Proactive, assertive and gender sensitive youth are engaged in individual & societal development. Quality education which builds youth competence for self-directed learning has become an advocacy issue.	1.1 Youth wants quality education. 1.2 Collectives of youth are available & interested to contribute in societal development. 1.3 Accessibility to appropriate Information & guidance to vocational training & career counseling is available & in demand. 2.1 Young men & women understand the issues of gender & caste based discriminations. 3.1 Youth collectives have opportunity to access various avenues of self-development. 3.2 Family & village level institutions accept the views & leadership of the youth. 4.1 Youth are aware about what quality education is & there is a demand for it.
Farmers	Farmer collectives collaborate with government and peers for economic, social and environmental sustainability.	Farmer leaders & collectives are actively accessing knowledge for their benefits with special emphasis on women farmers. Farmers are in healthy & close relationship with concerned institutions to resolve their problems with a gender sensitive approach. Entrepreneurial & progressive farmers are in the forefront of conservationist approach and inspiring farmer communities.	1.1 Women are recognized & given respect as a farmer. 1.2 There are active farmers collectives with strong leadership. 1.3 Farmer’s collectives know from where to access information and are able to bring them together for the members. 2.1 Institutions (Govt. & NonGovt.) are sensitive about different needs of men & women farmers and take an active approach to meet that need. 3.1 Farmers are interested to convert their agriculture into entrepreneurial activities. 3.2 Farmers are interested in eco friendly farming
CBOs	Strong, Capable & proactive CBOs are recognized for their role in sustainable development. To identify assumptions	Inclusive & democratic CBOs with clear focus are known for equality and equity. CBOs are recognized as representative of communities by formal institutions. CBOs Identify, prioritize and analyze issues for advocacy and negotiate with gender sensitive approach. CBOs have a long term perspective about their identity & have a clearly defined relationship with their sponsoring civil society organization.	1.1 CBOs believe in equity & equality and strive hard to make it reality. 1.2 Membership of CBO is open for every section of society without any discrimination. 1.3 CBOs members are aware of social issues & are committed to working for social change. 2.1. CBOs are aware of the problems of the community & take appropriate action to address them. 2.2. CBOs are up to date about various provisions & process that are available for their development. 3.1 CBOs are capable to identify, analyze & prioritize the issues. 3.2 CBO leaders are well trained in method of advocacy & representation. 3.3 CBO leaders & members are committed to gender issues & strive for addressing them. 4.1 CBOs have clearly defined MOU with their sponsoring civil society Organization. 4.2 CBO leaders & members have yearly convention to review their activity & future paths. 4.3 Sponsoring civil society Organization is actively involved in promoting democratic processes in CBOs.
PRIs	PRIs: ensure effective participation & enable marginalized communities to access their entitlements.	Functional PRIs collaborate with CBOs to provide spaces to marginalized communities for affirmative action. Gram Sabha members are aware of their roles & responsibilities and take non-discriminatory, pro-poor & accountable actions.
Govt.Departments	Govt.departments:function effectively, recognize & collaborate with other development actors proactively for inclusive governance.	Responsive, accountable, inclusive Govt. departments offer development opportunities to marginalized communities. The needs of women and children are given special focus in partnership with other development actors.
Donors & Resource Agencies	National, International & CSR Donors & resource agencies: partner with social development actors with shared perspectives	Donor & Resource agencies are mutually accountable with development actors for shared perspective. Support learning processes, which are translatable in programs. Work together to understand ground reality for realistic program planning.
Other NGOs & Networks	NGOs are fostering active networks to share & influence social change processes to promote accountability	Networks of Like-Minded organization are committed to agreed focus for social change. Networks are recognized as representative of grass root level CSOs by Formal institution & policy makers. NGO networks work with proactive, collaborative and gender sensitive approach with social Analytical thinking.

IV. Activity System Mapping

Purpose of this exercise is the following:

To better understand the ways in which different actors can contribute towards achieving specific outcomes, and to see whether it is possible, over time, to bring about greater alignment and collaboration between actors in the system.
To help an organization map the actors in an activity system that influences an outcome it wishes to achieve.

It was kept in mind that partnerships with different types of organizations and individuals are developed and maintained to help reach the vision of success as it cannot be reached alone. There are hundreds of institutions and individuals working and having different roles to play in the environment as a development agency, it is imperative that PANI develops different partnerships to help it towards her vision. Thus to do the system mapping, four quadrants were created on the floor. At the center of the four quadrants is the VISION of Success of PANI.

Positive influence and similar primary purpose, culture and values to the organization
Positive influence but with a different primary purpose and culture to the organization
Neutral – weak or little influence now, but could become a positive influence.
Negative influence. Two sub-categories may be useful here: Ø Negative influence now but could change to neutral or positive. Ø Negative interest and dangerous – whose influence needs to be minimized

A
+ve influence & similar purpose, culture & values to PANI

Can the role of organizations, which are closer to the centre/the Vision, be enlarged from a service delivery role for project implementation to extend outreach to the target groups? What strategies would be needed for that?
Organizations which are mid-distance from the Vision- can their influence with women and children target groups be utilised to extend outreach?
Special strategies/effort needed to develop the perspectives of those organizations that are further from the Vision.
MOU and annual reviews with the partners are needed to develop clarity in partnerships and plan for partnerships to help in the Vision of Success.

B
+ve influence but different purpose, culture & values to PANI

Funding partners offer linkages, experience sharing, providing constructive feedback periodically, capacity building.
With government departments specific relationships for specific purpose is built up. Long-term partnership so far has not been possible.
Other NGOS and CBOs named in this quadrant have the local culture, understanding of the situation. That makes it easy to work with them but a lot of effort needs to be put in to build their perspectives further in order to contribute to PANIs vision.
PANI needs to develop a five-year plan and invite and build partnerships for this plan.

C
Neutral- but could become +ve

Not many organizations at present in the quadrant except for government departments, NGOs, research institutions.
Present interacting only for certain requirements.
Partnership development can be thought of and developed.

D
-ve influence – could become +ve or would need to be minimised as can be dangerous to the Vision of Success

No organizations were placed here.
However, it may only mean that PANI is not aware of them at present.

V. Dimensions of Change

Any social development intervention should seek to bring about change in four dimensions. If all the four dimensions are covered in development interventions then the change can have a greater chance of contributing to sustainability and effectiveness. The table below gives the four dimensions of change. This framework was utilized to examine the pre-conditions for outcomes for four primary stakeholders. These four dimensions can be used while planning interventions also in order to see that change occurs in all four dimensions.

INTERNAL	EXTERNAL
Personal Transformation (1) Individual (multiple) identities Personal mindsets Emotions and feelings Development of the Self	Transforming Relationships (2) Relational habits Behavior Dialogic interaction with the social and political environment
Transforming Collective Patterns of Action & Thinking (3) Collective Identity & culture Collective behavior & thinking Shared understanding	Transforming structures & Procedures (4) Structural instruments of society (Constitution, Laws etc.) Public Policies Legal & judiciary procedures

The examination of the outcomes and preconditions revealed the following:

1. Target group –Women

Women are asserting their agency & taking the leadership for social change by establishing their identity.

Precondition 1- Spaces and opportunity for self-exploration, knowledge and information are available and accessible at the village level with institutions understanding women’s issues and needs.
All 4 dimensions of change are addressed.
Precondition 2- Women have the opportunity to move beyond gender biased socially prescribed roles and foster collaborative spaces with men.
All 4 dimensions of change are addressed.
Precondition 3- Women are skilled, functionally literate & self confident and are able to take care of their health and nurturing needs.
Dimensions 1,2 and 3 are addressed.
Precondition 4- Women take up leadership with strong will power, are challenging, take calculated risks, and are fearless and collaborative.
Dimensions 1,2 and 3 are addressed.

2. Target Group- Children

Healthy, secure and happy children are enjoying their childhood & rights.

Precondition 1- Child friendly resources are adequately available and accessible at village level.
Dimensions 1, 2 and 3 are addressed.
Precondition 2- Institutions working with children are sensitive, supportive and focused to ensure happy & secure childhood with rights.
Dimensions 1, 3 and 4 are addressed.
Precondition 3- Children & their collectives are actively involved in learning & growth and take up leadership.
Dimensions 1, 2 and 3 are addressed.
Precondition 4- Children are expressive, inquisitive, and friendly and gender sensitive.
Dimensions 1, 2 and 3 are addressed.

3. Target group – Adolescent and Youth (Girls & boys)

Adolescent and Youth (Girls & boys) are involved with constructive approaches in individual & societal development.

Precondition 1- Motivated youth & their collectives takeup leadership and strive for quality education and life skills.
Dimensions 1, and 3 are addressed.
Precondition 2- Young men & women are in collaborative relationships with mutual respect & social sensitivity.
Dimensions 1, and 2 are addressed.
Precondition 3- Proactive, assertive and gender sensitive youth are engaged in individual & societal development.
Dimensions 1, 2 and 3 are addressed.

4. Target Group- Farmers

Farmer collectives collaborate with government and peers for economic, social and environmental sustainability

Precondition 1- Farmer leaders & collectives are actively accessing knowledge for their benefits with special emphasis on women farmers.
Dimensions 1, 2 and 3 are addressed
Precondition 2- Farmers are in healthy & close relationship with concerned institutions to resolve their problems with a gender sensitive approach
Dimension 4 is addressed.
Precondition 3- Entrepreneurial & progressive farmers are in the forefront of conservationist approach and inspiring farmer communities.
Dimensions 1 and 3 are addressed.

VI. Activity Planning

The TOC should ideally become the centrepiece of all program planning now. This will contribute first to convergence of all development interventions to the Vision of Success. Second, the activities can be planned based on the outcomes expected. Thus, the assumptions and pre-conditions will guide the programme interventions.

People's Action for National Integration - PANI